3 Cubs Players’ First Halves That Feel Sustainable and 2 That Feel Like Fool’s Gold
The first half of the 2025 MLB season has been packed with surprises for the Chicago Cubs. As they chase their first division title since 2017, fans are wondering which players will sustain their stellar performances and which might fade. Let’s dive into three Cubs players whose first halves feel legit, and two whose numbers might be too good to last—an exciting mix for sports news enthusiasts!
Sustainable Performers: The Cubs’ Bright Spots
Pete Crow-Armstrong: Defense and Power Combine
Pete Crow-Armstrong has emerged as the face of the Cubs’ resurgence. The young center fielder’s impressive slash line of .272/.309/.550, along with 23 home runs and 27 stolen bases, makes him one of the most exciting players in the league. His advanced metrics, like an 85th percentile barrel rate and 97th percentile sprint speed, suggest his power and speed are real and sustainable.
Why PCA’s First Half Feels Legitimate:
- Consistent BABIP at league average (.298)
- Slightly above-average wOBA (.364) vs. expected (.354)
- High elite sprint speed supports ongoing baserunning and defense
Quick Tip: Keep an eye on PCA’s swing decisions; his development suggests he’s unlikely to cool off soon.
Michael Busch: A Width of Improvement
Michael Busch has taken a huge leap in his sophomore season, boasting a .297/.382/.562 slash line. His 166 wRC+ and improvement in contact metrics make his recent offensive surge believable. His hard-hit rate, barrel percentage, and launch angle all point to a player who’s unlocked new levels of power.
Why Busch’s First Half Is Sustainable:
- Expected stats (.281 batting average, .576 slugging) align with his production
- Demonstrated success against left-handed pitching, adding versatility
- Improved swing decisions and authority at the plate
Did You Know? Busch’s breakout is backed by analytics showing bright red expected stats—his numbers are shaping up to stay strong.
Striking Confidence in the Rotation: Brad Keller
While not an everyday star, Brad Keller’s performance as a Cubs reliever and spot starter has been impressive. His 2.88 ERA and stellar peripherals—like a 96th percentile exit velocity and 61.1% groundball rate—point to sustainable success. His arsenal, featuring a specialized sweeper and a more effective fastball, makes him a reliable piece moving forward.
Why Keller’s Production Looks Real:
- His xERA (3.00+) aligns with his actual ERA
- Elite contact-limiting metrics suggest continued effectiveness
- Stat cast data support his ability to limit hard contact
Fool’s Gold: The Numbers That Might Dim
Chris Flexen: Lucky to Keep Low ERA?
Chris Flexen’s impressive 0.83 ERA in 32⅓ innings has been a pleasant surprise; however, underlying numbers tell a different story. His xERA (3.25) and metrics like a low BABIP (.198) suggest he’s been fortunate. His strikeout rate is down, and regression could be on the horizon if some balls start finding gaps.
Key Point:
- Expect potential ERA inflation if balls land more regularly.
Colin Rea: Season’s Mirage
Colin Rea started the season strong but has since shown red flags. His recent numbers, including a 4.13 ERA and a concerning expected batting average of .290, indicate that his early success may be a fluke. The quality of contact and swing-and-miss rates suggest regression is coming soon.
Why Rea’s First Half Might Be a Fluke:
- Underlying metrics point toward less effective performance ahead
- Recent outings reveal struggles with contact quality
Conclusion:
The Cubs’ first-half performance offers hope and caution. Players like Pete Crow-Armstrong, Michael Busch, and Brad Keller have shown signs of true sustainability, boosting the team’s playoff chances. Meanwhile, Flexen and Rea’s stats warn of potential regression—something to watch as the season progresses. What are your thoughts on the Cubs’ standout performers? Share below!
Learn more about exciting sports news and Cubs insights at Sports news and updates. For detailed analysis, check out the full breakdown at Cubs’ first-half player review.
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